The military escalation between 26 November to 8 December led to the fall of the Assad regime, which has been in power for over five decades, leading to a historic transition period in the region with many unknowns.1 Northeast Syria (NES) has faced continued socio-economic instability and a multitude of compounding crises related to conflict and climate disasters, which has disproportionately affected women and girls of diverse identities (i.e. female-headed households, widows, older women, adolescents, and those living with disability). Prior to the transition, over 2.6 million people were in need of humanitarian assistance in NES,2 and approximately 165,000 individuals lived in 253 IDP sites, of whom 57% were under the age of 18 and 56% were female.3 Since November 27th, an estimated 100,000 people (including 23,000 people fleeing violence in Lebanon4) have arrived in Ar-Raqqa and Al-Hasakah governorates seeking refuge from escalating hostilities across the region, with only 8% of assessed households knowing their intended destination.5
Access to services remains challenging due to various factors such as political unrest, roadblocks by armed groups, supply chain coordination difficulties, limited availability of frontline workers, heightened security threats and curfews, particularly in Al-Hasakah and Ar-Raqqa governorates.6 This civil unrest and population shifts will strain already limited humanitarian services and resources, putting vulnerable populations such as children, people with disabilities, older people, and pregnant and lactating women at greater risk. Emergency collective centers in Tabqa and Raqqa have already reached full capacity, and it is anticipated that more schools in Raqqa, Hasakah, Tabqa, Kobani, and Qamishli will be repurposed as shelters, further interrupting education across the region.7 Furthermore, increased hostilities and political uncertainty may impact women’s participation in political and leadership spaces.
This analysis highlights pre-existing and emerging vulnerabilities and risks within the Ar-Raqqa, Deir Ez Zor, and Al-Hasakah governorates with a focus on gender and age data to inform humanitarian programming in the early stages of the crisis. The Rapid Gender Analysis (RGA) methodology is designed to be built progressively and adapted to the shorter time frames, rapidly changing contexts and insecure environments that often characterize humanitarian interventions. Thus, as more information becomes available and the security situation allows, further data will be incorporated into this analysis.